I sure am glad I live in Atlanta and not San Fran, San Hose, Oakland, or NY NY!!! Atlanta is number 35 out of 51 MSA’s (Metropolitan Statistical Areas) ranked in the PMI Risk Index Study.
Not Bad considering we are the 9th Largest MSA in the Country!
The PMI Risk Index is a statistical model based on certain measures of economic activity and conditions that PMI believes is predictive of the likelihood of home-price declines over the next two years. Factors used to derive the PMI Risk Index include the House Price Index from the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight, labor market statistics from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and the affordability index, which captures changes in the demand for housing as a function of local median household income and interest rates.
The PMI Risk Index scale ranges from one to 1,000, where a higher score indicates a higher likelihood of future home price declines. For example, a PMI Risk Index of 100 indicates a 10% chance of a decline in home prices over the next two years.
Because the PMI Risk Index scale is linear, if the PMI Risk Index for an MSA were to increase by 100%, say to 200 from 100, then, according to the PMI Risk Index model, the risk of home price decline has also doubled. Alternatively, if the score were to decline by 50%, for example to 50 from 100, the risk of home-price decline has also declined by 50%.
A complete copy of the latest PMI Economic and Real Estate Trends report containing the latest PMI Risk Index scores and analysis is available at:
PMI Risk Index by MSA Risk MSA Index
1 San Jose, CA PMSA 526
2 Oakland, CA PMSA 485
3 Nassau-Suffolk, NY PMSA 468
4 Boston, MA-NH PMSA 467
5 San Francisco, CA PMSA 439
6 San Diego, CA MSA 387
7 New York, NY PMSA 349
8 Orange County, CA PMSA 344
9 Sacramento, CA PMSA 317
10 Detroit, MI PMSA 302
11 Providence-Fall River-Warwick, RI-MA MSA 264
12 Los Angeles-Long Beach, CA PMSA 258
13 Riverside-San Bernardino, CA PMSA 237
14 Denver, CO PMSA 227
15 Bergen-Passaic, NJ PMSA 219
16 Minneapolis-St Paul, ,MN-WI MSA 218
17 Fort Lauderdale, FL PMSA 180
18 Newark, NJ PMSA 174
19 Average 171
20 Miami, FL PMSA 145
21 Austin-San Marcos, TX , MSA 128
22 Dallas, TX PMSA 126
23 Tampa-St Petersburg-Clearwater, FL MSA 114
24 Charlotte-Gastonia-Rock Hill, NC-SC MSA 112
25 Washington, DC-MD-VA-WV PMSA 111
26 Seattle-Bellevue-Everett, WA PMSA 98
27 Portland-Vancouver, or-WA PMSA 98
28 Greensboro–Winston-Salem–High Point, NC MSA 97
29 Houston, TX PMSA 96
30 Phoenix-Mesa, AZ MSA 96
31 Orlando, FL MSA 88
32 Kansas City, MO-KS MSA 86
33 Fort Worth-Arlington, TX PMSA 84
34 Chicago, IL PMSA 84
35 Atlanta, GA MSA 82
36 Raleigh-Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA 76
37 Norfolk-Virginia Beach-Newport News, VA-NC MSA 72
38 Cleveland-Lorain-Elyria, Oh PMSA 71
39 St Louis, MO-IL MSA 71
40 Baltimore, MD PMSA 70
41 Milwaukee-Waukesha, WI PMSA 67
42 New Orleans, LA MSA 63
43 Las Vegas, NV-AZ MSA 62
44 Philadelphia, PA-NJ PMSA 62
45 Columbus, OH MSA 62
46 San Antonio, TX MSA 61
47 Nashville, TN MSA 61
48 Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN PMSA 59
49 Indianapolis, IN MSA 58
50 Salt Lake City-Ogden, UT MSA 58
51 Pittsburgh, PA MSA 55
July 15th, 2006 at 7:11 pm
Thanks for the Stats!!!
Go Chicago!!
-Gordon
December 6th, 2006 at 3:05 pm
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